By Bill Zender and Andrew Uyal

December 2025

 

There are several myths that still circulate in today’s live table game casino industry:

1. If someone is winning, they are most likely counting cards
2. That any person who has picked up a book on card counting can gain an edge over the house and is a threat to the bottom-line of the casino.
3. At any moment in the casino’s daily operation, there are several card counters lurking around the Blackjack tables.

Because of these serious misconceptions, casino management has barred many “good” casino customers from play, and do not allow their Blackjack games to perform at a level of optimal profitability.

To achieve a top performing Blackjack game, the executive must be able to separate the truly professional level card counter from the card counter “Want-to-Be’s”.  It is only the true professional level card counter that is a threat to the casino’s bottom-line.  So how do we separate the two categories?

How Many Card Counters Are There?

Based on a Copilot inquiry, an estimated 57 million Americans visited a casino or gambled online in the past year, and about 16% played the game of Blackjack.  This calculates to approximately 9 million blackjack players.  Copilot also states that fewer than a half of a percent have learned anything about the practice of counting cards, mostly limited to reading a book or online article on the skill, or possibly relating it to the movie “21”.  I refer to this level of card counter as a “one book wonder”, a “weekend warrior”, or just simply an amateur card counter.  They might have reviewed how to keep the running count and possibly “understand” Blackjack basic strategy, but that is it.  They would be considered your “average Blackjack” player, give back approximately 1% to 1.5% of every dollar wagered on the table.

In reality, an educated estimate of the number of Americans that have taken the time to take a step further and take the efforted into learning to count cards at a high level is around 1,000 inquisitive souls.  These people have purchased books detailing the mechanics of card counting, taken online training courses, have reviewed Blackjack basic strategy, and have practiced counting down a deck of cards using the recommended count system included in their book or training course.  We could categorize this subsection of card counters as “semi-professionals”.  They possess the knowledge but lack the skills obtained through repetitive practice and serious research.  They also lack the required bankroll and determination.  A good estimate of the semi-professionals’ performance at the table is they give the casinos about what a basic strategy player would do and that is play with an average disadvantage of about 0.5% on every dollar wagered.

This takes us to the category of “professional” card counter.  Based on a conversation I had with two former card counters and authors at the World Game Protection Conference in 2023, their estimate of professional level card counters in North America is approximately 150 to 200 people.  To be clear, it is only the “professional” level card counter that has the ability to win money from the casino in Blackjack in the long-term.  The professional counter, through training, practice and table experience looks to profit from the casino at a rate of about 1% on the average dollar wagered during his or her play.

What Constitutes a “Professional” Level Blackjack Card Counter?

For a Blackjack card counter to elevate to the level of “professional”, one that counts Blackjack as a living, they must master the following areas.  This will take long hours of training and extreme dedication.  The professional cannot make even minor mistakes when playing because mistakes, and missed opportunities, will quickly diminish the counter’s profitability.  Mastering the following areas will determine whether the card counter can play optimal level Blackjack, and maintain a suitable degree of profitability in which to make a livelihood playing cards.

• Understanding of Blackjack basic strategy

The professional needs to have instance recall of all basic strategy decisions of the Blackjack game type they are attacking. This means they must memorize approximately 550 to 600 hand decisions depending on the rules and whether surrender is offered. The average but knowledgeable player may memorize up to 150 of those decisions.  However, they need to know the full set of strategies to play flawlessly.  Note: The professional card counter will use basic strategy on approximately 4 out of 5 hand decisions.

• Can count a deck of cards down in 20 seconds or less

They need to be able to go through a 52-card deck, turning cards up two at a time, with no mistakes, in 20 seconds or under to achieve a level of card awareness to count accurately in the casino environment.  This required speed only comes for extensive practice.  The professional counter will be able to count down 10 consecutive decks, in 20 seconds or less with no mistakes.  Note: For defensive purposes, the game protection employee should be able to count down a deck of cards in 40 seconds or less.

• Can conduct True Count Conversion accurately

Card counting, as we know it, was developed in the late 1950s, early 1960s, when casinos used only a single deck of cards.  Subsequently, the count values represent card removal values based on a starting total of 52 cards.  With modern Blackjack, casinos will utilize two decks, six decks and up to eight decks to deal the games.  The added decks and card will “dilute” this information, and the professional level counter needs to reduce the dilution effect to come up with a “truer” count.  This is accomplished by dividing the “running count” by the number of decks remaining unseen, i.e., cards still in the dealing shoe.

Example: If the Running Count were a +6 off the top of a six-deck game, the true count would be +6/6decks = a True Count of +1.  The counter then uses the True Count to make the decision to (1) amount to bet on the next round, (2) whether to deviate from basic strategy, or (3) whether it is profitable to take insurance when offered.  If there are three decks remaining, the +6 Running Count would result in a +2 True Count, and if one deck remained the True Count would be the same as the Running Count at +6.

The professional needs to have the ability to view the discard holder, determine the approximate number of decks remaining unseen, and convert to an accurate True Count to make any of the three before mentioned decisions.  Once the decision has been made, the counter must then go back to the Running Count and use it when collecting additional card information.  Note: While the Running Count is card counter’s tool for collecting card value information, the True Count is what the counter must use to make critical betting and playing decisions.

• Has instant recall of the top 18 hand strategy deviations

Approximately one hand out of five requires the counter to deviate from basic strategy based on the True Count.  There are eighteen strategy deviations known as the “Illustrious 18”.  These 18 strategy changes take in 90% of all possible strategy deviations the Professional card counter will use in a multiple deck game.  Like the use of basic strategy, these deviations must come second nature to the professional counter.  Note: 80% of the professional counter’s mathematical advantage comes from betting while 20% comes from correct play deviations.

• Understands bet spread requirements and has the discipline in placing wagers

Since 80% of their gain comes from utilizing a correct betting strategy, the professional level counter must use a minimum to maximum wagering spread to achieve their overall mathematical advantage.  They need to know what spread will provide them with an overall advantage of 1% of every dollar they wager.  This overall advantage percentage takes into consideration the minimum units bet when the house has the advantage, and the increase units wagered whenever the counter identifies he or she has the mathematical edge.

If their bet spread strategy is insufficient or they are reluctant to get their maximum wager in at least 40% of the positive advantage situations, they cannot achieve a profitable return over the long-term.  Note: This is the difference between the semi-professional and the professional card counter.  The semi-professional has mastered all the card counting skills to be successful; however, they do not have an adequate bankroll or are afraid to push their maximum wager out on to the layout when necessary and will not reach the required monetary return of the Professional.

• Practices superior table and casino playing strategies

Like any other game of skill, the professional must practice, practice, practice.  The professional needs to practice the basic skills of the game (counting, basic strategy, hand deviations, etc.) for several hours per day.  They also need to scout different casinos and concentrate on playing in optimal situations based on decks, rules and perceived casino operational weaknesses.  The average professional spend a good portion of their day honing their skills and game situation knowledge.

• Knows the formula for bankroll requirements

Not all playing sessions result in a winning outcome.  On average, the professional card counter will win six out of ten sessions. To overcome these temporary periods of negativity, the professional counter relies on a substantial cash reserve, or “bankroll” to stay solvent.  The formula the professionals use is they need a specific multiple of their maximum wager based on their anticipated mathematical edge divided into 100.  For example, if the counter calculates his or her overall edge at about 1% and their maximum wager at $1,000, they will need to have access to a bankroll of approximately $100,000.  If their bankroll is only $50,000, they can safely wager a maximum bet of $500.  Anything more than that places them in a situation where they could suffer a long enough negative run to go broke.

Bottom-line of this article

Only counters that have worked to get to the professional level have any edge over the house to gain a long-term advantage over Blackjack and the casino.

To reach a professional level, the card counter must learn all the previously mentioned skills, practice these skills, and apply a great amount of dedication and discipline to achieve a long-term overall monetary return on investment.  Most counters have the heart to win, but do not possess the knowledge or dedication it takes to make a living counting cards.

The biggest difference in separating the semi-professional from the professional level card counter is their ability to bet the money when the deck is in their favor.  Either the inability to play with an adequate bankroll, or the fear of wagering their maximum bet when the remaining cards in the deck or shoe are in their favor, the semi-professional cannot achieve long-term profitability.  They must have “guts” to push out their maximum wager at least 40% of all favorable hands or they will not earn at a level need to play Blackjack profitably in the long-term.

Only training regarding the detection of professional level card counters will help the casino to separate the pro from the amateur.  By focusing on the real threat and allowing the average counter want-to-be to play will help the casino increase revenue potential.  This potential will be achieved through deeper deck penetration and more wagering decisions.  In addition, by utilizing more accurate methods for confirming that a customer is a professional and a threat to the casino, the casino can expel those problem Blackjack players and retain the “lucky” winners that will be good long-term customers for the casino.

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